They modify their underlying pastorientation with inputs from the current environment such as market information, economic signals and government regulations. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight. Introduction to strategic foresight freija van duijne. Rather, it is a futuresoriented methodology designed to identify opportunities and constraints in strategic planning development. Iftf foresight essentials institute for the future. Foresight as a strategic longterm planning tool for. Where traditional planning has sought to prevent failure, strategic foresight prioritises resilience, namely early detection and fast recovery. A methodology first practiced by the military, classical applications usually focus on possible future trends and developments horizon scan of one crucial driver, such as the future. The organization is aware that there are strategic foresight best practices and is learning from external input and past experiences. A methodology first practiced by the military, classical applications usually focus on possible future trends and developments horizon scan of one crucial driver, such as the future of technological. Strategic foresight strategic foresight is most commonly used by strategic planning units of national governments. With the growing futures community in the government, we now.
Models exist that help your derive plausible scenarios for the future, aiding and influencing your decisions, big or small. Simplifying complexity with strategic foresight and scenario. The project piloted futures strategic thinking and foresight tools to understand entry points for adb to support transformational change. Using scenarios to identify, analyze, and manage uncertainty b. Iftf foresight essentials is a portfolio of trainings created to provide the right tools and techniques for embracing strategic foresight, navigating largescale change, and leading your organization towards a vibrant future. Strategic foresight also requires a combination of analysis and creativity that constitutes, in the excellent term of foresight consultant riel miller, rigor ous imagining.
When using mm2, the focus shifts to future business, future competitors, future goals, and future customers. Consider alternative scenarios of the future for credit unions. The purpose of this paper is to explore the application of scenarios, as part of foresight process in the attempt to anticipate and understand the future vulnerabilities pdf 437 kb exploring the factors influencing electric vehicle adoption. University strategic planning and the foresightfutures. Develop training programs that institutionalize strategic foresight and that reinforce learning and shift attitudes toward change as. Previously, planners assumed that future conditions would be more or less like present conditions. We can use strategic foresight to exercise good judgement about. Global pandemics however perhaps are not coming completely out of left field. Ultimately, strategic foresight aspires to equip governments and societies with the capacity to constantly explore and prepare for the future in order to navigate, adapt, and shape the future through better policies.
Develop training programs that institutionalize strategic foresight and that reinforce learning and shift attitudes toward change as the best approach. It explains the processes, tools, techniques, and ideas that cooperate to shape preferable futures. Pdf developing and applying strategic foresight semantic. File type pdf strategic foresight learning from the future. Strategic foresight learning from the future initiumapp. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this future might unfold. Strategic foresight is a management discipline developed after world war ii to help people think and plan effectively in complex and uncertain conditions. Institutionalize strategic thinking to develop a future cadence. Strategic foresight can help us explore the drivers of change, understand the future structural shift in the labour market and guide a reskilling of people who have lost their jobs during the crisis or who are likely to in the future due to technological developments and automation. The strategic foresight practitioner does not claim to know the future but aims to support and enable groups, leaders and their organisations to prepare, shape and create their future through the process of learning with futures. Strategic foresight is mostly about creating and using mental model two mm2. For this purpose, this communication presents as next steps. The author makes a powerful case that the art and science of discovering the future is an emergent process and requires a creative combination of thinking and sensemaking like a hedgehog, fox and eagle as part of a unified continuum to the past, present. Learning from the future kindle edition by lustig, patricia.
Use features like bookmarks, note taking and highlighting while reading strategic foresight. From the conducting of some 50 to 60 strategic foresight exercises, and the design and delivery of many leadership programmes, we have developed the concept of five anticipatory literacies linking. Jun 18, 2020 foresight practitioners are wellversed in the processes of identifying weak or emerging signals as well as sources of disruption and societal change agents. Lustigs book is a very good introduction to and overview of the futurist discipline. Thus, planning for the future did not take changing conditions into account. At the strategic foresight workshop, you will learn about tools and methods you can use to help you identify future scenarios, analyze the impacts of those futures, and better enable you to prepare and make appropriate decisions today. This manual has been compiled from several published sources by. The author explains lucidly the strategies that can assist. Strategic foresight is of particular interest to me because im a provisional member of the association of professional futurists and working on a professional certification in strategic foresight through the university of houston. Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight.
To be clear, foresight thinking is not about forecasting or predicting. Learning from the future to shape the post2030 agenda oecd netfwd 2021 annual meeting 1618 march 2021. The exercise was a rare multicontinental experiment conceptualised and managed by strategic foresight group based in india, supported by sida based in sweden and hosted by respective river basin organisations in asia, africa and europe for the benefit of the people of the middle east. Learning from tomorrow shows how strategic foresight broadens our. He writes that strategic foresight takes the irreducible uncertainty of the future as a. The reports depict political, social, technological, economic. As a way of thinking, foresight also encourages innovation, strategic evaluation and the proactive shaping of the future. Friends of csf speak about foresight deep dives and emerging strategic issues artefact from the future. Ten years in the future is recommended, for the simple reason that individuals. Related terminology includes strategic foresight, future studies, and scenario analysis. Strategic foresight is required whenever there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the relevant future context. At the same time, practical application of government foresight in strategic planning and.
Download it once and read it on your kindle device, pc, phones or tablets. In strategic foresight, practitioners study how to proactively plan and create the future. Skills for the future european training foundation. Or, are black swans, by their very nature, impossible to predict. I introduce the notion of scrappy foresight to suggest that imagination is a valuable, but inexpensive, strategic resource. Nov 18, 2019 strategic foresight supplies these frameworks. There is considerable overlap between the ideas of foresight. Prototype resilience dashboards as an example of a way of monitoring resilience. We hope to in the future provide helpful, easy to consume and share information about strategic foresight and plural futures. Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank engaged in crafting new policy concepts that enable decision makers to prepare for a. Limitations to our current perspective on the future 17 aims of strategic foresight 18 strategic foresight. Allied command transformation futures work natos act. Peter scoblic, author of learning from the future, recommends turning to strategic foresight. Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for.
This book introduces strategic foresight sf as an essential skill that can be learned by managers and leaders. Patricia lustig has woven a fascinating tapestry of diverse resources to create an integrated framework for practising strategic foresight. Learning foresight below are a small sample of foresight toolkits and primers from stanford university to the united nations. Learning from the future named by the association of professional futurists as most significant futures work, 2018 for works that advance the methodology and practice of f oresight and futures studies. Its aim is not to predict the future but to help organizations envision multiple futures in ways that enable them to sense and adapt to change.
Strategic foresight is a way of getting a perspective of what the future holds and working backward to determine what. Cooperation sdc supported the rhine learning journey. Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. This paper will report on how foresight is being introduced into the strategy processes at swinburne university of technology. Review a broad array of trends and emerging issues shaping the futures of credit unions. Learning those tools and techniques, the readers will be able to use them to develop strategies effectively. Future plans purposespecific toolkits webinars primers for decision makers case studies to share. By learning different methods of foresight and innova on strategy, you can enjoy more of the me you have today and also ensure a brighter tomorrow. University strategic planning and the foresightfutures approach. Mm2 answers the same questions, but this time, they are posed about the future.
Strategic foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures, so that you can plan for and take advantage of them. Most organisations operate primarily on the basis of priorities and principles laid down in the past, within a takenforgranted worldview. The 2020 strategic foresight report shows that actiondriven strategic foresight is uniquely suited to inform decisionmakers to drive the twin transitions and strengthen the eus resilience. Nick marsh in his book, strategic foresight the power of standing in the future, says, future studies involves the examination of key trends and their outcomes, with the hope of successfully influencing those outcomes. Learn lessons in how to adapt to be more resilient to future shock. Strategic foresight of future b2b customer opportunities. Science, technology and society artefact from the future. The organization has reached a level where it has a consistent approach to strategic foresight, used across the organization, which delivers an acceptable level of performance and. The evolution of futures studies since world war ii has followed a welldefined pattern. Professional foresight books a longer list 2020 foresight. The futures school takes the theory and makes it actionable.
As our foresight efforts mature, we are learning to apply a wide range of foresight tools and methods to policy, and have developed a working understanding of how foresight and an appreciation of complexity can help us think about the future better. But few attempt to bring these factors from the past and present into a coherent relationship. First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty. We invite you to join our foresight community, support and learn from our research activities, practice the methods and tools taught in our classes, and then apply your ideas and energy into worldchanging impact.
Governance, unintended consequences and the redemption of hope 10 for 10. Futurehandbook of research on strategy and foresightresetting our future. Strategic foresightthe history, theory, and practice of which i have spent years researchingoffers a way forward. This book articulates the importance of strategic foresight and its contribution to an organizations success. Its aim is not to predict the future but rather to. Read pdf strategic foresight learning from the future. Part and parcel of strategic foresight is the crafting of alternative futures or scenarios within the context of helping an organization or community plan for and move towards its. Building strategic agility for a fastermoving world, john kotter 2014. Strategic foresight analysis reports provide a wideranging shared understanding of the future security environment that is expected to unfold over the longterm horizon. The dynamic environment of companies necessitates, on the one hand, rapid adoption of incremental changes and, on the other hand, radical reorientation towards new business opportunities, technologies, or markets rohrbeck, 2011. Traditionally, it is a highly theoretical discipline. Our mission is to create leaders and teams who imagine and build with foresight across multiple innovation horizons.
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