Pdf energy is a critical foundation for economic growth and social progress. Oct 07, 2016 the launch of the world energy scenarios report in istanbul is not the end, but rather the start of a process of contributing to the development of global and regional energy agendas and working with teams regionally to envisage the meaning of this work locally. A largescale transformation of the global energy sector is possible, although it will require significant investment. In producing the world energy scenarios the world energy council collaborated with. They help us to make crucial choices in uncertain times as we grapple with tough energy and environmental issues. The energy consumption growth in the g20 slowed down to 2% in 2011, after the strong increase of 2010. Many scenarios in the literature illustrate how energy system developments will affect the global issues analysed in part 1 chapters 14. Over the next four decades, the worlds energy system will see profound developments. Pvn ira ol snwe nanul amt esnvent i onl aregiyt pai cca nad, emca epenl t r 201950 usd billionyr 32 figure 16. Three years ago, we made public our shell energy scenarios to 2050.
The energy outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. This scenario charts a path fully aligned with the paris agreement by holding the rise in global temperatures to well below 2c and pursuing efforts to limit it to. Fossil fuel trade by 2050 is lower under lowcarbon scenarios than in 2012. Energy modeling involves replicating realworld energy systems to create subnational, national, regional or global models. This report explores how the energy landscape could evolve over the coming decades, and specifically, how much oil currently the largest source of energy the world might consume by 2050, in three different scenarios. Bp considers the scenarios in the outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming its longterm strategy. Based on the new policies scenario, the central model used by the oecds international energy agency, in part a entitled global energy demands, on the emerging global energy landscape, over the period to 2035, global energy demand would increase by more onethird with china, india and the middle east accounting for 60 percent of that increase. The global energy scenario model is a proprietary tool that allows companies to model the impact that disruptions in the energy market would have on their.
The greatest uncertainties over this period involve the need for more energy to support continued global economic growth and rising prosperity, together with the need for a more rapid transition to a lowercarbon future. I a sees the i as sustainable evelopment scenario s s as the most likely reflection of the worlds energy future. The scenario got its name from 450 parts per million ppm, the co 2 concentration that was seen at that time to be consistent with a 50% likelihood of keeping average global temperature rise below 2 c assuming that net zero. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what bp would like to happen. These scenarios highlight the dual challenge that the world is facing. In the stated policies scenario, energy demand rises by 1% per year to 2040. The worlds actions today will be crucial to create a sustainable energy system. Global emissions could be halved by 2050, using existing and emerging technologies, at an additional cumulative investment of usd 46 trillion, a further increase of 17% on top of aseline investments. Coals share of power generation declines from 40% in 2017 to nearly onequarter in 2040. Jobs in renewables would reach 42 million globally by 2050, four times their current level, through the increased focus of investments on renewables.
Consumption and production of the energy resources is also given in petajoules. Major differences when considering the impact of the scenarios across sectors covid19 is like a drop in the ocean this is just one of the many conclusions from ings scenario planning project on the global energy transition. Insights from the rapid, net zero and businessasusual. Part b electricity special international energy agency. Historical 1850 1900 1950 2000 16 30 2050 cagr % 0. The second and third scenarios high and low liquids demand were developed by adjusting consumer. In the et scenario, global energy demand grows by around a third by 2040 a significantly slower rate of growth than in the previous 20 years or so. In this volatile environment, longterm scenarios are more important than ever.
Shell energy scenarios to 2050 global energy security forum. The result of such a scenario is that energy demand contracts by 6%, the largest in 70 years in percentage terms and the largest ever in absolute terms. World energy scenarios 2016 paul scherrer institut psi. For almost half a century, shell scenarios have helped us to gain a deeper understanding of global developments and the worlds energy supply, use and needs. Oil the global proven oil reserve was estimated to be 1147 billion barrels by the end of 2003. Understanding the global energy crisis edited by eugene d.
In 2016 the total world energy came from 80% fossil fuels, 10% biofuels, 5% nuclear, and 5% renewable hydro, wind, solar, geothermal. In the reference case, more than half of the projected increase in global energy consumption occurs in nonoecd asia, a region that includes china and i ndia. It allows to browse data through intuitive maps and graphs, for a visual analysis of the latest trends in the energy industry. The sustainable development scenario maps out a way to meet sustainable energy goals in full, requiring rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. Sustainable development scenario world energy model. The course discusses global trends in energy consumption and production, various available scenarios for potential developments in the coming decades, the availability of oil reserves and the evolution of the oil industry. Energy information administration global transportation energy consumption. Examination of scenarios to 2040 using itedd 2 the first scenario is the eias international energy outlook 2016 ieo2016 reference case projections. More extensive modelling by the iea, ipcc, and others has indicated a continued leading role for gas in global. The estimated falls of 8% in oil demand and 7% in coal use stand in sharp contrast to a slight rise in the contribution of renewables. The current policies scenario is a baseline picture of how global energy markets would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies and measures. Improve institutions for global energy governancethe need to bolster existing international governing institutions in order to make energy more affordable, available, accessible, and sustainable.
By 2040, 10 of the assessed 2 o c scenarios project that oil and gas will continue to supply more than 50 percent of global energy. Solar generation 33 projections in 2040 and 2050 global energy scenarios. Temperature implications of the different storylines in the 2021 shell energy transformation scenarios sergey paltsev, andrei sokolov, martin haigh, david hone and jennifer morris abstract. Africa case ac a new africa case ac was developed for the special focus on africa in weo 2019 that reflects the agenda 2063, in which african leaders set out their vision for the. Global financial institutions exiting coal are generally committing2 to the ieas sds or beyond 2c scenario when they set paris agreement compliant targets. The introductory chapter describes these four energy scenarios in further detail. The outlooks transforming energy scenario aligns energy investments with the need to keep global warming well below 2 o c, in line with the paris agreement. To address the various pathways for the energy transition, our global energy. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energyrelated co2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. Scenario planning revealed that policy and technology are the main uncertainties for the global. Modelling global energy demand institute for energy. To meet the longterm goals of the paris agreement, the global energy system needs to transition. Advances in renewable energy, technological innovation.
Pdf 2020 millennium project global energy scenarios. Each year, the agency releases a world energy outlook report which, among other things, attempts to model global energy demand using various scenarios. Foreword by rob whitney, chair of the world energy scenario. Our assessment is that global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy related co 2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. Since in the hte scenario biofuels would meet 20% of global demand for vehicular fuel, current biofuel levels are coherent with bau and eb scenarios, in which renewable and clean energy production is in need of incentives and subsidies to become competitive. For several years now, the world energy demand is characterized by the bullish chinese and indian markets, while developed countries struggle with stagnant economies, high oil prices, resulting in stable or decreasing energy. Building on earlier global energy transformation reports, it also grapples with the decarbonisation of challenging. Mckinsey energy insights global energy perspective, january 2019. The world energy outlook, the ieas flagship publication, provides a comprehensive view of how. Composing energy futures to 2050 world energy council 20. Larger potential for upside and downside energy consumption in nonoecd countries than oecd countries ieo2016 reference case, low liquids scenario, and high liquids scenario. In this respect, the global renewables outlook shows the path to create a sustainable future energy system. Transforming the global energy system would permit affordable, and universal, energy access, increase energy security, and diversify energy supply.
The energy balance is given in kilo tonne of oil equivalent. Creative technology solutions are expected on both supply and demand sides, but more effort is still needed. The global energy system is interconnected in terms of import and export of electricity and energy. Jobs in renewables would reach 42 million globally by 2050, four times their current level, through the increased focus of.
Discussion purpose only do not cite or circulate eia energy conference washington, dc july 2016 low and high liquids scenarios. Typically measured per year, it involves all energy harnessed from every energy source applied towards activity across all industrial and technological sectors, in every country. Three scenarios for planning in the era of hypercompetitiveness, energy companies will face nontraditional competitors as new participation models exploit vertical and horizontal integration opportunities within and across energy value chains to create sustainable competitive advantage. Global energy related co2 emissions peak, but remain above assessed 20c scenarios increased energy efficiency and a shift to lower carbon energy sources will help curb co2 emissions, but not sufficiently to reach a 2ocpathway. Growing societal pressures, technological trends and government and industry actions are moving the world toward decarbonization and away from the businessasusual. The economic crisis is largely responsible for this slow growth. Global primary energy reserves coal the usa had the largest share of the global reserve 25.
It highlights climatesafe investment options until 2050 and the policy framework needed to manage the transition. This is true for both scenarios although primary energy consumption is higher in 2050 in the jazz scenario than it is in the symphony scenario. Energy scenarios 334 energy scenarios provide a framework for exploring future energy perspectives, including various combinations of technology options and their implications. Oil and gas account for more than half of global energy in 2040, down from 57% today. While there are considerable uncertainties in respect of some of these issues, many of the defining characteristics of the landscape are clear, and the energy policies of all countries will need to be broadly consistent with these if they are to be feasible and. Our energy scenarios scramble and blueprints remain a credible vision of what may lie ahead. In the sustainable development scenario, investment grows at a much faster rate, reflecting stronger policy support and the central role that these clean energy technologies play in reaching sustainable energy goals. To meet the longterm goals of the paris agreement, the global energy system needs to transition to a radically different fuel mix than currently in use. The tool brings together a variety of bcg models, including those for oil, gas, power, renewables, and climate change, so companies can assess a variety of scenarios through the year 2040. With the ability to meet 3% of the world demand for electric power and a solid growth. The major purpose of this book is to lay out the broad landscape of global energy issues and how they might develop in coming decades. Lowcarbon sources, led by solar photovoltaics pv, supply more than half of this.
The course discusses global trends in energy consumption and production, various available scenarios for potential developments in the coming decades, the. Shell longterm energy scenarios shell energy scenarios to 2050. Human intelligence, natural resources, scientific advances and market trends are constantly redefining the global energy story. Based on scenarios, these projections compare what will happen if policies remain the same and. The scenario is focused on energy related carbon dioxide emissions, which make up around twothirds of global greenhouse gas. Energy consumption represents the sum of electricity, transport and heating. We look at the electricity mix later in this article. Generally, there have been three energy scenarios along the. Then, it will discuss the impact of power electronics in energy. Note that this is based on renewable energy s share in the energy mix. World energy consumption is the total energy produced and used by humans. Global energy scenarios and their implications for future shipped trade. Energy quantities data are recorded in physical units relevant to the product in question gwh for electricity, tonne for petroleum products etc. At the same time, future energy scenario modelling has provided greater clarity over the role of gas in rapid energy transition scenarios aligned with a less than 2 celsius pathway.
World energy consumption has implications for the socioeconomicpolitical sphere. Chinas share in global energy demand drops from 24% in 2018 to 23% in rapid, 22% in net zero and 21% in bau by 2050. We analyze temperature implications of three scenarios of energy transformation developed by shell international. Implications of energy system change for global shipping are significant. Investment in oil and natural gas is required to replace natural decline from existing production and to meet future demand under all assessed 2 o c scenarios. Global energy outlook 2020 resources for the future.
The scenario is focused on energy related carbon dioxide emissions, which make up around twothirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2019, around 11% of global primary energy came from renewable technologies. Bcgs global energy scenario model can help companies make smart decisions amid such unpredictability. Once these models are developed, they can be used to create scenarios to display alternative futures with different technologies and fuel supply options it. This scenario takes into account the current and planned policies. Under reference scenarios, the global story of energy additions continues, with coal growing modestly while oil, natural gas, and renewables all. In addition, we detail two economic scenarios that reflect the uncertainty of economic recovery. The global energy statistical yearbook is a enerdatas free online interactive data tool. In search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends jennifer morris1,2, david hone 3, martin haigh, andrei sokolov1 and sergey paltsev1 abstract. Change in real income from the for the baseline450 delayed actionand 550 core scenarios, 2050 63 figure 3. Future of solar photovoltaic international renewable energy. Primary energy consumption in china increases slightly, in all three scenarios with the economy size nearly tripling from 2018 to 2050, chinas energy intensity declines by over 60% in all scenarios. Pdf the current world energy situation and suggested future.
Over the next 25 years, growth is projected to slow, increasing by roughly 110. Global energy harvesting system market size and forecast. Global energy harvesting system market size and forecast pdf. Shell energy scenarios shell longterm energy scenarios to 2050. Nov, 2018 the international energy agency iea is an independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1974 under the framework of the organisation for economic cooperation and development oecd. Global coal consumption is broadly in the evolving transition scenario world energy demand increases by onethird from 2017 to 2040. Global energy scenario model boston consulting group. While we support the notion that global carbon pricing is widely viewed as the most efficient way of addressing global climate change, the current trends in global climate policy allude to a good. Growth in energy consumption is broadbased across all the main sectors of the economy, with industry and buildings. The world energy outlook introduced a detailed energy transition scenario in 2009 then called the 450 scenario.
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